Development Risk
Cost overruns, cancellation, and budget pressure
How simulated Sprint overruns, cancellation gates, and budget pressure expose hidden development cost — and why the cheapest feature can carry the steepest relative risk.
Risk Resilience
Standard portfolio risk for agile projects
A practical look at portfolio risk for software backlogs: the four risk layers — development, market, component, global — and what happens to business value when each one fires.
Business Value
Approaches for software projects
Business Value Floor 95 for software projects: the 5th percentile of simulated outcomes. Value at Risk reframed as reliably achievable value.
Feature Hypotheses Simulation
A Product Owner's experiment with financial risk thinking
FHS is a small Python library that simulates 10,000 futures per feature hypothesis so Product Owners can prioritise on a numerical decision basis — expected value, Business Value Floor 95, worst case, …...